Progressive Betting | Optimal Card Counting

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Progressive Betting Systems – Why Don’t They Work?

There are several pitfalls that you will eventually hit if you’re using a strategy based on progressive betting. First of all, at some point you might run out of money and not be able to afford doubling your bet after a loss. Here’s how things will look if you lose 7 hands in a row starting at $25…

Bet #1: $25 (total loss = $25)
Bet #2: $50 (total loss = $75)
Bet #3: $100 (total loss = $175)
Bet #4: $200 (total loss = $375)
Bet #5: $400 (total loss = $775)
Bet #6: $800 (total loss = $1,575)
Bet #7: $1,600 (total loss = $3,175)
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Problem A

At this point you’re down $3,175 and you now need to bet $3,200. Can you afford that? How about if you lose an 8th hand in a row… Can you afford to be down $6,375 and then bet another $6,400? Even if you think you can afford it, when you finally win a hand you will be up a whopping $25 for all your work and emotional stress. Will you lose 7 or 8 hands in a row? Maybe not in the first hour of play, but there is no question that at some point you will lose more than 8 hands in a row no matter how good of a player you are.

Problem B

Looking at the above example, you can probably guess what the next problem with progressive betting is. Even if you have an unlimited bankroll, at some point you will hit the table maximum bet and will not be allowed to raise your bet further. Most Indian casinos will usually have a $500 or $1,000 table maximum. Many high limit rooms in Las Vegas only go up to $5,000. Even the high end properties in Vegas such as Wynn, Bellagio and Aria will only go up to $10,000 on their blackjack tables.

Problem C

Other factors involved in blackjack progressive betting are the player options of doubling and splitting. If you ignore these options the house edge against you will increase. If you use these options, as you should, you could end up with 2X or 3X your bet on the table. I’ve had pairs split into four separate hands and have needed to double all four of them. That meant I had 8X my original bet on the table. If the dealer busts and I win, that’s great, but if the dealer pulls a 21 and I lose all of my hands, that’s a tough pill to swallow. Now imagine you’re about five losses deep (down $775 and betting $800) into your progressive betting system and you’re dealt 8,8. The dealer shows a 6, so you split. Another 8 comes to you, so you split again. Now you get two face cards and a 3 to match your 8s. You stand on your 18s and double the 8,3. You get a low card on your double and the dealer turns the 6 into an easy 19. After all, a a dealer’s 6 only busts about 42% of the time. In this scenario you lose $800 X 4… That’s $3,200 in one shot! Now you’re down $3,200 + $775 and need to bet $4,000 just to make that original $25 in profit. Lose another hand and you’re at the table max without an opportunity to recoup your losses. It’s over and you only lost six hands in a row. Ouch!

The shortcomings of progressive betting apply to all casino games. Roulette, craps, baccarat, sportsbetting… you name it, progressive betting will guarantee you lose at it. Not even card counting is able to avoid the ultimate collapse of such a flawed system. You might win for a day or two and gain false confidence, but when the reality of progressive betting hits you it gets ugly quick. With one losing streak you will lose what you gained over the previous sessions and more!

Learn from the Mistakes of Others…

The bottom line – DO NOT USE A PROGRESSIVE BETTING SYSTEM! Many uneducated gamblers will try to mask the fact that their progressive betting system loses by adding little twists and tweaks. It has been proven over and over again that you will still lose if your strategy is based on a progression. Don’t sell yourself short, learn something useful that actually works and holds a long-run advantage. Take the time to learn about blackjack and card counting (not just counting +1 and -1, but everything that goes into being successful at counting cards), and you’ll maintain a long term advantage over the casinos. While you’re at it, why not join my next blackjack seminar!

Side Note – If you’re attempting to count cards in Laughlin, at the end of this article I will cover the strategy I suggest using to maximize your winning potential. If you don’t know how to count cards or are just simply ineffective with your current way of doing things, then you might want to consider one of my upcoming blackjack seminars.

Best Blackjack Odds in Laughlin

The smallest house edge you can find in Laughlin will be at the single deck tables at Golden Nugget and Pioneer. These games give a full payout on blackjack and hold a house edge of under .2% if you know how to play your hands correctly. If you’re looking to get these great odds, then I suggest brushing up on your single deck basic strategy. Beware of the single deck at Harrah’s Del Rio and Aquarius, because they pay 6:5 on blackjack rather than 3:2. That gives the house nearly a 2% edge rather than a .2% edge.

Your next best option is the single deck blackjack at Riverside. They also give a full 3:2 payment on blackjack, although they restrict your doubling down to just on 10 or 11. The house edge on this game is still under .5% if you use optimal basic strategy.

Laughlin Double Deck Blackjack

The double deck games you’ll find in Laughlin are all pretty similar. There’s no doubling after splitting and no resplitting aces. The odds hang around .5% for a basic strategy player. If you’re not card counting, then you’re better off on the full paying single deck games. If you are card counting, then you may want to consider the deep dealing 6-deck options. Either way there’s never really a reason to be playing double deck in Laughlin.

Laughlin 6-Deck Blackjack

The 6-deck shoe games in Laughlin have the worst odds other than the dreadful 6:5 paying single deck games. Even as a perfect basic strategy player you will be facing nearly a 1% disadvantage. Being a Professional Blackjack Player myself, I probably wouldn’t play these games unless they had extremely good dealer penetration and I was using a team strategy. The 6-deck dealer penetration in Laughlin is typically pretty good.

Laughlin Blackjack Rules

All blackjack games in Laughlin have the dealer hitting on Soft 17. The majority of the games will not allow you to double after splitting and you cannot resplit aces or surrender anywhere that I’m aware of. Since the rules are pretty consistent, you will get the better odds going with a game that uses less decks. Single deck is best, followed by double deck, then 6-deck and 8-deck. This isn’t always the case in other parts of the country (especially Vegas), but it is clearly the case in Laughlin.

Card Counting in Laughlin

When it comes to counting cards in Laughlin, you have a couple of choices. You can go with the better odds on single deck and use a minimal betting spread, or you can go with a large betting spread on the 6-deck games that have good penetration. In order to fly under the radar I suggest using both strategies so you can move from casino to casino without overexposing yourself in any one place. You’ll find the greatest return on your investment using a good team card counting strategy with a friend or two. This will allow you to take advantage of a huge betting spread on the 6-deck tables. These 6-deck games have terrible initial odds, but you can often find great penetration to offset it. Pioneer would be the number one option for good 6-deck penetration followed by Tropicana Express, River Palms, Riverside and Harrah’s Del Rio.

Now go enjoy the river, the sun and the blackjack. Just be sure to use this guide to increase your chances of going home a winner!

Speaking from experience, I’ve put together a list of the top 5 positive and negative aspects of playing blackjack for a living. My hope is to help people decide if this lifestyle seems right for them before they go out and experience everything first hand. I’ll go with the assumption that you enjoy playing cards and are interested in card counting, because I would never recommend anyone pursue a career that they won’t enjoy.

Positives of “Playing Blackjack for a Living”

1. Paid in Cash

The benefit of being handed cash on the same day you earn it is fairly self-explanatory. I don’t know anyone that would rather be written a check than given cash.

2. No Boss

Doing what you want, when you want, how you want, is a luxury very few people have. Being your own boss and having no one to answer to can be very satisfying and work well for a motivated person. If you’re an extremely lazy person and need someone to babysit you and tell you what to do, then playing blackjack as a job and card counting in general may not be for you. This is an entrepreneurial type of business that provides great financial reward for hard work.

3. Flexibility in Schedule

Having the ability to work when you want and start or stop on a moments notice is an immeasurable benefit of playing blackjack for a living. You can never be late for work or take too long of a lunch. For the night owls, you’ve got the luxury of playing blackjack any time of day or night any day of the week. Sometimes I like to play as much as possible for a straight week and then take the entire next week off. The point is, as a professional blackjack player, how you manage your time is completely up to you!

4. Environment

This might not be a positive for everyone, but it certainly is for me. I would much rather spend a Tuesday afternoon at a Las Vegas resort than in a cubicle at an office. When blackjack is your job, you get to enjoy casual conversation at the tables in a vacation setting rather than sitting in a meeting room at work talking about increasing production. What’s more appealing, having a diet coke in a break room at the office or drinking a cold beer out at a pool?

5. Free Comps

For me this is a huge perk of the job. I’m not the type of guy that goes out and spends $300 on dinner at an overpriced steakhouse. However, when those lobster tails are free, they seem to taste so much better. Playing blackjack for a living allows me to eat at some of the priciest restaurants in the world and stay in some of the most beautiful resorts ever built. While most people save up all year for a summer vacation, my family is able to go to just about any casino resort for free on a moments notice.

Negatives of “Playing Blackjack for a Living”

1. Healthcare

For those of you that depend on company paid healthcare, you’re simply not going to get that covered playing blackjack as a job. You will be left to buy your own healthcare out of pocket just like any other self-employed person.

2. Retirement

Along with no company healthcare, you also will not be getting an employer matched 401K. My suggestion is to set up a Roth IRA and make the maximum contribution every year. Your Roth IRA capital gains will be tax-free and can be cashed out upon retirement age. Although you may never want to retire from playing professional blackjack, you will hit what is considered the “retirement age” for a Roth IRA at 59 1/2. Roth IRAs are one of the best things going in the investment world, so take full advantage. Distributions really are 100% tax free!

3. Travel

This can be a good thing or a bad thing. I have a wife and kids, so I don’t like to travel away from them too much. We’ve chosen to live in a nice area with great weather rather than live where there are a lot of great casinos. This means I have to travel out to where I play. Sometimes that’s a lot of fun, but sometimes it’s just a hassle. You really have to give strong consideration to how you’re going to get to the casinos you plan to regularly play at.

4. No Exact Paycheck

Playing blackjack for a living doesn’t earn you a bi-weekly paycheck of a set amount. In card counting the money tends to come in waves that simply cannot be planned. Some days a Pro Blackjack Player might make more than he made the entire previous week. Then the next day he might make nothing. If you’ve ever worked a commission job, then you know how this is. If you’re accustomed to a predictable paycheck that you get every two weeks, then this lifestyle takes a little getting used to. Just don’t go spending all your money when you have your first big winning day.

5. Smokers

This is my own issue and I don’t expect everyone to agree. After all, some professional players are smokers themselves. I personally can’t stand having to sit at blackjack tables with people blowing smoke in my face. Unfortunately casinos are packed with smokers. These days more and more casinos are adding non-smoking tables and are improving their ventilation systems, so this is a continually improving negative aspect of the game. One of my top personal rules is to never sit directly next to someone that’s smoking. If they light one up, I’m getting up and switching tables.

Is Card Counting for a Living for You?

So there you have it, my own personal list of 5 positives to playing blackjack for a living and 5 negatives to consider as well. Only you can decide if this type of work is a good fit for you and your personality. I realize many of you just want to beat the game for when you’re on vacation or to supplement your income on weekends. For you, the issues listed above probably aren’t too significant. For those looking to get to a professional card counting level and have blackjack as their sole source of income, these are some things you really must consider before quitting your day job. Of course these issues only matter once you gain the necessary knowledge, skill and discipline to be a profitable blackjack player in the first place.

Let’s start by defining what we mean when we talk about “good blackjack rules” and “good dealer penetration”. I will then go through a quick analysis of which condition is more important in maximizing your profit potential. As always, my main focus in blackjack is increasing profits.

Good Blackjack Rules:

H17 or S17 – This refers to the dealer hitting or standing on Soft 17. We prefer the dealer to stand.

DAS – This refers to a player’s ability to double after splitting. If you split your 8’s and get a 3 to make 11, you want to be able to double down on the 11.

RSA – This refers to the player’s ability to resplit aces after an initial splitting of aces. If you split a pair of aces and get a third ace, you want to be able to split that into a third hand.

LS – This refers to a player’s ability to surrender. Surrendering allows you to forfeit your hand and get half of your bet back without playing out the hand. This is commonly used when on a player’s 16 versus a dealer showing a 10.

These are the main blackjack rule variations you will encounter, but it’s certainly not all of them. We’re going to assume you’re getting the full 3:2 payment on blackjack and you can double any two initial cards dealt.

Preferred Rules: To get the best of these rules, you want the dealer standing on Soft 17 and you want to have the DAS, RSA and LS options available to you.

Good Dealer Penetration:

“Dealer penetration” is blackjack terminology used for describing how deep a dealer will deal into a deck (or multiple decks) before reshuffling. This is a critical concept in card counting. Penetration is determined by where the dealer places the cut card and it varies from casino to casino. A deeply placed cut card will show you a higher percentage of the cards in a shoe, therefore giving you more information to work with when tracking the count. It also causes high counts to occur more frequently and last longer. For basic strategy players, penetration really doesn’t matter. For card counters, the deeper the penetration, the more profitable the game will be.

Preferred Penetration: Typically a 6-deck game that deals 4 out of 6 decks is considered to have “poor penetration”. Dealing 4.5 decks out of 6 before shuffling would be “average penetration”. A casino that shows 5 full decks out of 6 before hitting the shuffle card has “good penetration”.

Therefore if Casino A is dealing 4 out of 6 decks before shuffling and Casino B is dealing 5 out of 6 decks before shuffling, Casino B is going to be a much more profitable game for card counting assuming the rules of the tables are similar.

Greater Impact: Rules or Penetration?

Often the choice comes down to this… Do you go play at a casino that has all the best rules but poor penetration, or do you go for unfavorable rules with good penetration? Although you want the best of both, what if you have to decide between the two? Let’s take a closer look at the relative performance under different rules and penetration levels.

Here we see the relative profitability of three different sets of rules at four different depths of penetration. For this example I’ve kept the parameters simple and consistent. I’m using a 6-deck game with a Hi-Lo card counting system, 70 hands played per hour, 4 players at the table and an optimal betting ramp from 1-10 units with no back counting or backing out of negative counts. Manipulating any of these parameters will obviously change the chart somewhat. This chart would also look different if we analyzed a single deck, double deck or 8-deck game instead of this 6-deck game.

Conclusion: You can see that if you have terrible rules on a game, you better have good dealer penetration if you want to make money. If you have great rules you can be a little more forgiving when it comes to the shuffle point. Then there’s the middle ground of semi-decent rules and average penetration. The lesson to be learned here is that to be a successful card counter you really need to know how to analyze the quality of a game. There are also many other blackjack conditions to consider such as the level of casino heat you will get at different betting levels with different betting ramps. Hopefully I’ll get a chance to cover some of these other issues in a future post. For now I hope this helps to clarify the decision between good rules and good penetration. Now go hit the tables and make some money!

Please Note: These blackjack tips do not always apply to card counters. If you’re using good card counting strategies, then you should know the appropriate times to go against these tips.

So you’re not Rain Man (1988 movie), but you would still like to improve your chances of winning at blackjack? Here are 17 great blackjack tips for players that are not counting cards.

Beginner Blackjack Tips

Tip #1 - Learn correct basic strategy! Nothing is more important for beginners. (View Basic Strategy Charts for help)

Tip #2 - Never play a game that pays 6:5 on blackjack. Always stick to games that pay the full 3:2. An 8-deck game paying the full 3:2 on blackjack is far better than a single deck blackjack game paying only 6:5.

Tip #3 - Less decks is better than more decks. Just remember, this is only true if the rules are consistent over both games. Therefore if a casino’s double deck game has the exact same rules as their 6-deck game, the double deck game has better player odds.

Tip #4 - Try to find the best table rules you can. Ideally you want the dealer to stand on “Soft 17″. If you’re playing a 6-deck or 8-deck game, play where you can surrender.

Tip #5 - Never use the dangerous Martingale Betting System that requires you to double the size of your bet when you lose. Believe it or not, you can (and will) lose an incredible number of hands in a row at some point. You may survive for a while using the Martingale, but when that losing streak hits, you will lose everything you previously made and a lot more.

Tip #6 - Playing at lower stakes doesn’t necessarily mean you will lose less over time. If you’re playing $20 per hand on a 6:5 paying table, you may be at a large 2% disadvantage causing an expectation of a 40¢ loss per hand. If you’re playing a game like the high limit 6-deck at Aria Casino in Las Vegas, you’re only at a .26% disadvantage. That’s an expected loss of just 26¢ per $100 bet. Notice that the $20 bet will lose more than the $100 bet over time.

Tip #7 - Don’t take insurance! It doesn’t matter how much you bet or what your hand is, insurance is a bad bet! Only 4 out of 13 possible cards will give the dealer a blackjack under the ace. That’s a 30.8% chance of blackjack. If you are only getting paid 2:1 on an insurance bet, that’s a losing bet. If you’re an advanced player using a card counting system, then insurance is a great option in certain situations.

Tip #8 - A dealer showing a 5 or 6 is more likely to make a hand than bust. Don’t go crazy doubling your 7 or less just because the dealer’s showing a 5 or 6. You may get a small card and want to take another hit. Remember, the dealer will make a hand in this situation more times than not.

Tip #9 - Never stand on your “Soft 17″. This hand cannot bust by taking a hit and can only push against a dealer’s 17 if you stand. This is always either a hit or a double.

Tip #10 - The dealer doesn’t control whether you win or lose. Even if you’re frustrated with how things are going, don’t be rude! Believe it or not, the dealers actually want you to win so they can hopefully make some tips and avoid listening to players moan and groan.

Tip #11 - Don’t make bets or playing decisions based on emotions or gut feelings. Know ahead of time what you will be betting and how you will play your hands.

Tip #12 - Make the correct play regardless of your bet size. Just because your biggest bet of the day is on the table doesn’t mean you should suddenly stand on a 14 versus the dealer’s 10 to avoid busting. Play the hand, not the money.

Tip #13 - If you’re playing for comps, sit at a full table. This will slow the game down considerably and allow you to play longer without risking a lot.

Tip #14 - Don’t overuse the surrendering option. Only surrender a 16 versus a dealer’s 9, 10 or Ace, and a 15 versus a dealer’s 10. This is assuming you’re playing a multi-deck game and not counting cards. If you are card counting, then hopefully you know all the correct surrender plays to maximize the potential of this great player option.

Tip #15 - Never double 4,4. This is only a hit unless you’re facing a 5 or 6, then it’s a split. For some strange reason players that would never double a 3,5 or 2,6 suddenly want to double a 4,4. Don’t do it!

* The only exception to this rule is on a single deck game where you cannot double after splitting. Only then would you double 4,4 versus a dealer’s 5 or 6. Keep in mind, most of you will not be playing a game like this.

Tip #16 - Whether the table has been winning or losing doesn’t have anything to do with whether or not it will continue to win or lose.

Tip #17 - Never go all-in. Always leave yourself enough money to double or split your hand. There aren’t many scenarios more painful in blackjack than getting dealt two aces, not having enough money to split, then hitting for two facecards and busting. Ouch!

Who:

So who is it that you’ll see using the surrender option at the blackjack tables? Is it a fearful player that quickly throws in the towel? Is it a superstitious player trying to change the flow of the cards? The truth is that it’s the smart blackjack player that takes advantage of great surrendering opportunities. There are certain situations in blackjack when the expected value of your hand is a loss of more than 50% of your bet. When that’s the case, clearly you’re better off surrendering and getting half of your bet returned to you rather than playing out the hand.

Here’s a look at the expected loss on a $100 bet without card counting. The reality is that whether you’re keeping track of it or not, there is always a count. The more positive the count goes, the higher the expected loss is when hitting this 15 or 16…

What:

For those that are new to blackjack or just haven’t played many games where surrendering was an option, let’s clarify exactly what surrendering is. When you surrender in blackjack you are immediately forfeiting your hand and getting 50% of your bet returned to you. An example would be if you bet $100 and were dealt a 16 versus a dealer’s 10, you might prefer to “surrender” the hand and get $50 back instead of potentially losing the entire $100. You’re taking an instant loss of half your bet in order to save the other half of the bet. Surrendering is only an option on your first two cards before you take a hit. Once you have taken a hit you can no longer surrender and must finish playing out your hand.

Where:

So where is blackjack surrender offered? Surrendering is usually only allowed on certain shoe games that use 4, 6 or 8 decks. There are only a handful of exceptions that I’ve seen on the west coast (none in Las Vegas)…

Double Deck Blackjack with Surrender (Southern California)

Barona Casino – also has surrender on high limit single deck blackjack

Sycuan Casino
Harrah’s Rincon Casino
Casino Pauma

3-Deck Blackjack with Surrender (Tucson, Arizona)

Casino Del Sol

Typically it’s going to be the 4-8 deck games dealt from a shoe where you might find the surrender option. Here’s a list of the larger casinos on the Las Vegas Strip, plus a few noteworthy mentions off the Strip. I’ve noted where you will find surrender available, if at all…

Aria (City Center) – high limit 6-deck, $100 minimum
Bally’s – 3:2 paying 8-deck games, watch out for the 6:5 tables!
Bellagio – all 6-deck blackjack
Caesars Palace – high limit 6-deck games and some 6-deckers on the main floor
Circus Circus – surrender not allowed
Encore – all 6-deck blackjack
Excalibur – surrender not allowed
Flamingo – surrender not allowed
Green Valley Ranch – high limit 6-deck, $50 minimum
Hard Rock – high limit 6-deck, $100 minimum
Harrah’s – surrender not allowed
Imperial Palace – surrender not allowed
Luxor – surrender not allowed
M Resort – high limit 6-deck, $50 minimum
Mandalay Bay – all 6-deck blackjack
MGM Grand – all 6-deck and 8-deck games
Mirage – all 6-deck and 8-deck games
Monte Carlo – all 6-deck and 8-deck games
New York, New York – all 6-deck blackjack
Palace Station – all 6-deck blackjack
Palazzo – all 8-deck blackjack
Palms – high limit 6-deck and all 8-deck games
Paris – high limit 6-deck and all 8-deck games
Planet Hollywood – all 6-deck blackjack
Red Rock – high limit 6-deck, $50 minimum
Rio – high limit 6-deck, $50 minimum
Riviera – some 6-deck games
Sahara – surrender not allowed
Stratosphere – surrender not allowed
Treasure Island – all 6-deck blackjack
Tropicana – surrender not allowed
Venetian – high limit 6-deck and all 8-deck games
Wynn – all 6-deck blackjack

When:

So when is the right time to surrender? That depends on the blackjack table rules (S17 or H17) and whether or not you’re counting cards. Even without card counting, knowing the correct basic strategy surrender moves will help to reduce the house edge. Here’s a comparison of some 6-deck blackjack games with and without the surrender rule available…

A general rule of thumb is to never surrender against a dealer showing a 2 through 7. Surrendering should only come into consideration when the dealer shows an 8, 9, 10 or ace. Let’s have a look at the correct basic strategy surrender moves on a 4-deck, 6-deck or 8-deck game…

Dealer Stands on Soft 17

Surrender 16 vs 9, 10 or ace
Surrender 15 vs 10

Dealer Hits on Soft 17

Surrender 16 vs 9, 10 or ace
Surrender 15 vs 10 or ace
Surrender 17 vs ace
Surrender 8,8 vs ace

Card counting gives you some additional info to work with. Assuming you’re not using any cover plays that involve surrender situations, here are some easy-to-remember surrender moves that will save you money…

True Count of zero or higher: Surrender 16 vs 9, 10 or ace… Surrender 15 vs 10
True Count +2 or higher: Surrender 15 vs 9 or ace
True Count +3 or higher: Surrender 14 vs 10
True Count +4 or higher: Surrender 16 vs 8

If for some reason you’re a numbers freak and want to know every precise surrender move that exists when dealt a 14 through 17 against a dealer’s 8 through ace, you can contact me for a complete guide. This will get extremely detailed, for example you would want to surrender a 14 versus an ace (S17) at +6 or higher, but against an ace (H17) at a +4 or higher. In my opinion such extensive knowledge is overkill and not at all necessary to play a profitable game of blackjack. Stick to the four surrender points shown above and you’ll be fine.

Why:

The bottom line of why we want to surrender at the appropriate time is that we’re doing everything we can to gain and maintain a mathematical advantage over the house. I make my living off of maximizing my odds at the blackjack tables. Knowing optimal surrender strategy is definitely a key piece of the puzzle. Remember, surrendering is not about giving up or lacking courage, it’s about taking a smaller expected loss to improve overall results. Card counting or not, using correct surrender strategy is just plain smart.

Blackjack at Aria Casino – The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

My first thought about playing blackjack at Aria was that it’s a new place that will hold mostly higher-end players. Great! That means I can throw some large bets around and hopefully go somewhat unnoticed. When it comes to card counting I’m not just looking for great blackjack rules and good dealer penetration, I’m looking for where I can get the most action on the table without drawing too much attention to myself. I found that Aria was pretty good in this respect. I was also pleasantly surprised to see that Aria’s casino chips do not have RFID technology (radio frequency identification) that could potentially track player betting patterns. If you’re wondering what an RFID chip might look like, just head into Wynn Casino and check out a $25 chip. You’ll see that there is a metallic circle near the top-center of the chip which is used for tracking purposes. The main idea of RFID technology is to prevent counterfeit chips, but I also know they can be used to detect a card counter’s betting patterns. So thank you Aria for using normal chips like most of Las Vegas!

Aria Blackjack Rules

Aria is currently dealing 4 types of blackjack and they’re all quite different. Knowing the difference between these games can really help reduce the house edge over an average blackjack player. For a card counter, it’s critical to understand these differences in order to maximize your advantage over the casino. Let’s have a look…

6 Deck Blackjack with Continuous Shuffle – (H17, DAS, RSA, Surrender)

This is clearly the worst blackjack game at Aria. Not only does the dealer hit on Soft 17 (H17), but the cards are continuously shuffled after every hand making it impossible to track cards. This game typically has a $25 minimum on weekends, but drops as low as $10 on weekdays. As a card counter, the continuous shuffling machines make these tables unplayable for me.

6 Deck Blackjack – (H17, DAS, RSA, Surrender)

The 6 deck blackjack dealt from a real shoe is definitely a nice improvement from the continuous shufflers. The games are countable for advantage players and the dealers are dealing through about 4 ½ decks before shuffling. That’s pretty much standard penetration for an MGM property. On these tables the dealer hits on Soft 17, but you can re-split Aces and Surrender. Other MGM properties such as MGM, Bellagio, Mandalay Bay and Mirage will all let you re-split Aces and Surrender on their 6 deck shoe games as well. Although this clearly isn’t the best 6 deck blackjack in Vegas, you could still do a lot worse. Remember, the hitting/standing on Soft 17 rule is the most important thing when it comes to blackjack rules (assuming you get the full 3:2 payment on blackjack). You want the dealer standing on Soft 17 and at Aria some tables do and some don’t!

6 Deck Blackjack in High Limit – (S17, DAS, RSA, Surrender)

There are a handful of 6 deck blackjack tables in the high limit room at Aria. These games are similar to the 6 deckers dealt on the main floor, only with better rules. Here you get the dealer standing on Soft 17 and you can also re-split Aces and Surrender. This is the same high limit 6 deck blackjack as you will find at many of the other MGM properties as mentioned above. The table minimums are set at $25, $50 or $100 depending on the day of the week and which table you’re at, but that’s often the price you pay for the better games in Las Vegas.

Double Deck Blackjack – (S17, DAS, no RSA, no Surrender)

This is the table where I was more than happy to take some of Aria’s money. The double deck blackjack at Aria is excellent. They stand on Soft 17 and you may double after splitting. Although you cannot re-split Aces or Surrender, you can’t re-split Aces or Surrender anywhere in Las Vegas on double deck when they stand on Soft 17. You will only find re-splitting Aces on games where the dealer hits on Soft 17. Whether you’re card counting or not, this is a great game and the dealer penetration is good. This might actually become one of my favorite games in Las Vegas! On weekends you can expect a $100 minimum, but on weekdays I noticed it was dropped down to a $25 minimum (at least during the daytime).

So let’s have a look at the house edge on these 4 blackjack options…

Note: These “house edge” numbers assume you are playing optimal basic strategy at all times, but not counting cards at all. If you’re not playing correct basic strategy, then these red bars will grow. If you’re a good card counter and actually know how to properly use card counting strategies (this is rare), then these red bars will shrink and become a player’s edge.

So what percentage of the blackjack tables at Aria are dealing each of these games? Here’s an approximation of what it looked like when I was there…

Aria Blackjack Review – The Conclusion

All in all I was happy with what I found at Aria and I’m sure I’ll be spending plenty of time there. I don’t like the atmosphere nearly as much as I like Bellagio, Wynn and Encore, but it’s not too far behind. If you have anything to add my analysis of Aria’s blackjack, please feel free to post it below as a comment. If you’re interested in hearing about the betting strategy, cover and play deviations I used while at Aria and the amount of pit boss heat I received from it, then you’ll have to contact me privately. Unfortunately I can’t go too deep into my personal experiences at casinos because I don’t want to be identifiable by casino personnel. Good luck out there!

While this statement obviously isn’t true, you will commonly hear blackjack players make this complaint at the tables. So what are the odds that a dealer will bust? That all depends on what card the dealer is showing and what cards are left in the deck. Let’s take a look at the dealer’s probability of making various hands when showing a 6 on a double deck game…

Odds of the Dealer Busting

As you can see, it’s less than a 50/50 shot of the dealer busting. To be exact, the dealer has just over a 42% chance of busting. Keep in mind, that’s with a 6 showing! If you have a weak hand such as a 12-16, you stand against a dealer’s 6 in hopes that he’ll bust. Unfortunately that’s probably not going to happen for you.

Now let’s have a look at how card counting could help you take advantage of changing probabilities. If you’re counting accurately you will know when the deck is rich in high cards. Let’s make a rough example by looking at a double deck game with half of the 2-6’s removed. Now what are the odds of a dealer busting when showing a 6?

Busting Probability Increased

So now you have a better than 50/50 shot of getting the dealer to bust. Not only are you a little safer standing on a 12-16, but doubles and splits are looking extra lucrative against a dealer’s 6.

To be fair let’s have a look at the opposite situation. What does it look like if you remove half the face cards and half the aces from a double deck game?

Busting Probability Decreased

The odds of the dealer busting a 6 are pretty low here. Just imagine how small the chances are of busting a 2 or 3!

So what’s the moral to the story? You can’t just sit back and expect the dealer to bust for you. Odds are that the dealer’s going to pull a hand even when showing a 6. However, good blackjack players will know when the dealer is more likely to bust and will increase their bets accordingly. Along with adjusting your bets, you should be adjusting how you play some of your hands to fully maximize your edge over the house.

Casino comps are a great, but are they really free? Chances are you’re losing a lot of money at the tables in exchange for those so-called “free” comps. Unless you’re card counting, and you’re effective at it, the casinos know you’re going to lose more and more money over time. You may get lucky in the short run, but in the long run they know they have you. Let’s take a look at what’s really going on in the casino comp system and how you might be able to take advantage of it.

When it comes to giving out player comps, casinos usually value your worth using a pre-set formula. Every casino company is a little different, but the parameters generally go something like this…

(hands per hour) X (house edge) X (average bet size) X (number of hours)

= Theoretical Player Loss

Casinos assume you will not be playing optimal basic strategy when gambling. Therefore they expect your loss-rate to be somewhere between 1% and 2%. For most blackjack players this assumption holds true.

Let’s explore this calculation further by plugging in some numbers. Let’s say you’re playing around $100 per hand over a 4 hour stretch one evening. Let’s also assume this particular casino uses a 1% theoretical edge and 75 hands per hour to calculate player ratings. Here’s how you’re looking in the eyes of the casino’s comp system…

Hands per Hour X House Edge X Avg Bet X Hours Played = (75) X (.01) X (100) X (4) = $300

The casino values your 4 hours of play at $300. For comp purposes they’re willing to kick back a certain percentage of that amount (usually 25%-30%) in free rooms, food, chips, entertainment or cash. That’s about $75-$90 worth of comps for your 4 hours of action.

Make no mistake about it, the casinos are not your friends. Your value to them is strictly a dollar sign. The longer you play and the higher your average bet, the more they will cater to you. Understanding how the comp system works is the first step in taking advantage of the system. Now you can begin to capitalize on this knowledge and get far more than your fair share of casino comps.

Tips for Getting More Comps While Risking Less:

Here are some great tips (for non-card counters) that you can use to exploit the comp system by appearing to be worth more to the house than you actually are…

Tip #1 – Play games with good odds
The house edge can be very different depending on where you’re playing. For example, the 6-deck games (S17, DAS, RSA, LS) at MGM Grand in Las Vegas have a house edge of only a quarter of a percent while the single deck games (H17, DAS, 6:5 on blackjacks) have nearly a 1.5% house edge. That means the house edge is 6 times as bad for you on the single deck game as on the 6-deck game!

Hint: For the very best odds, find a table where the dealer Stands on Soft 17 (S17), you can double after splitting (DAS), re-split Aces (RSA) and surrender (LS). Most importantly, avoid any game where the blackjack payout is 6:5 rather than 3:2.

Tip #2 – Play correct basic strategy
Playing optimal basic strategy will put your losing rate much lower than what the house will assume for comp purposes. You might get comped as if you’re losing at a rate of 1% (.01) when in reality you’re playing basic strategy on a good game where the house edge is only around .2% (.002). Games like the Mirage double deck in Las Vegas have this small of a house edge if correct basic strategy is being played.

Tip #3 – Play at a crowded table
Playing at a crowded table will really slow the game down. This means that you will be playing far less than the 75 hands per hour that the casino is banking on. Maybe you’re only playing 50 hands per hour because of how slow the game is moving, but you’ll be earning comps at the 75 hands per hour level!

Tip #4 – Take frequent breaks
Maybe you want to take a break for 15 minutes or so. Well don’t pick up your chips and get clocked out of the game, leave your chips at the table. This tactic keeps you clocked in as if you’re still playing. They’ll be comping you for time spent having a drink at the bar!

Tip #5 – Adjust your bet size at the right time
You may have noticed that the Pit Boss will come by from time to time and write down what he perceives to be your average bet size. That’s a perfect time to throw a little extra out there. Of course you only want to bet within what you can afford and you don’t want to get carried away with this strategy, but adding a second chip to your bet won’t cost you much. An appearance of having twice your real bet size will get you twice the comp value. As soon as the Pit Boss notes your bet size and walks away, drop your bet right back down.

Tip #6 – Exaggerate your losses
When you leave a table you may want to pocket some chips and appear you lost more than you really did. This won’t change the formula they use to evaluate your comp level, but it could certainly sway a decision on whether or not you’re getting your room covered for the weekend.

There are many strategies to increasing your comp value while risking less and these 6 tips should get you off to a great start. The overall concept is very simple. Look let you’re betting more, losing more and playing longer than you actually are. Use these tips and you can actually earn more in comps than the casino will ever get back from you at the tables.

Best Single Deck Blackjack – Full 3:2 Payment

Please Note: When I refer to “best” single deck blackjack, I’m simply talking about games where you’ll get the full 3:2 payment on blackjack. For the purposes of this article, I’m not taking into consideration card counting conditions such as dealer penetration or the amount of heat you’ll receive from increasing your bets and making various play deviations. That type of info is covered in my blackjack training.

• Barona Casino – San Diego, CA
• Robinson Rancheria – Nice, CA
• Feather Falls Casino – Oroville, CA
• Binion’s Casino – Las Vegas, NV
• El Cortez – Las Vegas, NV
• Four Queens – Las Vegas, NV
• Golden Nugget – Laughlin, NV
• Pioneer Casino – Laughlin, NV
• River Palms Casino – Laughlin, NV *single deck is no longer available
• Eureka Casino – Mesquite, NV *changed to SuperFun21, in other words “horrible odds”
• Boomtown Casino – Reno, NV
• Topaz Lodge – Topaz Lake, NV
• Montego Bay – Wendover, NV
• Peppermill Casino – Wendover, NV
• Rainbow Casino – Wendover, NV
• Red Garter Casino – Wendover, NV
• Wendover Nugget – Wendover, NV
• Isle of Capri – Biloxi, MS
• Fitzgeralds Casino – Tunica, MS
• Gold Strike Casino – Tunica, MS
• Harrah’s – Tunica, MS
• Horseshoe Casino – Tunica, MS
• Sam’s Town – Tunica, MS
• Ameristar Casino – Vicksburg, MS
• Rainbow Casino – Vicksburg, MS
• Riverwalk Casino – Vicksburg, MS

If you’re playing single deck blackjack anywhere other than a place on this list, the odds probably aren’t that great. Every casino listed above, with the exception of Binion’s and Four Queens in Las Vegas, has a minimal house edge of .25% or less on their single deck games. Binion’s and Four Queens restrict doubling down to 10 and 11 only (same as the casinos in Reno other than Boomtown), therefore making the house edge about twice that of the casinos listed above. Since I’m focusing on low house edge games in this article and not card counting, I’ve left Reno’s single deck games off the list. The best single deck odds are currently found at Barona in California and Topaz Lodge in Nevada because they offer surrendering. Feel free to contact me if you have a question about a specific casino that you don’t see listed here.

Single Deck Basic Strategy

Playing optimal single deck blackjack requires a slightly different basic strategy than multi-deck blackjack or even double deck blackjack. The exact basic strategy you will want to use will depend on the specific rules of the table.

This single deck basic strategy chart assumes that the dealer will hit on Soft 17 and that the player cannot double after splitting and cannot surrender. These are the most common rules for single deck blackjack.

Single Deck Basic Strategy Chart

Single Deck Basic Strategy Chart