“The dealer never busts!”
While this statement obviously isn’t true, you will commonly hear blackjack players make this complaint at the tables. So what are the odds that a dealer will bust? That all depends on what card the dealer is showing and what cards are left in the deck. Let’s take a look at the dealer’s probability of making various hands when showing a 6 on a double deck game…
Odds of the Dealer Busting
As you can see, it’s less than a 50/50 shot of the dealer busting. To be exact, the dealer has just over a 42% chance of busting. Keep in mind, that’s with a 6 showing! If you have a weak hand such as a 12-16, you stand against a dealer’s 6 in hopes that he’ll bust. Unfortunately that’s probably not going to happen for you.
Now let’s have a look at how card counting could help you take advantage of changing probabilities. If you’re counting accurately you will know when the deck is rich in high cards. Let’s make a rough example by looking at a double deck game with half of the 2-6’s removed. Now what are the odds of a dealer busting when showing a 6?
Busting Probability Increased
So now you have a better than 50/50 shot of getting the dealer to bust. Not only are you a little safer standing on a 12-16, but doubles and splits are looking extra lucrative against a dealer’s 6.
To be fair let’s have a look at the opposite situation. What does it look like if you remove half the face cards and half the aces from a double deck game?
Busting Probability Decreased
The odds of the dealer busting a 6 are pretty low here. Just imagine how small the chances are of busting a 2 or 3!
So what’s the moral to the story? You can’t just sit back and expect the dealer to bust for you. Odds are that the dealer’s going to pull a hand even when showing a 6. However, good blackjack players will know when the dealer is more likely to bust and will increase their bets accordingly. Along with adjusting your bets, you should be adjusting how you play some of your hands to fully maximize your edge over the house.
Do you know the odds of a dealer busting a 10 or an ace? Sorry for all the questions, but I really appreciate your insight.
Mike: For a double deck game like I used in the above examples, the dealer has just over a 21% chance of busting a 10 or facecard. Keep in mind that the odds change when cards are removed from the decks.
The odds of a dealer busting an ace are a lot lower. If it’s a “stand on soft 17″ double deck game, then the dealer will bust roughly 11.5% of the time when showing an ace. If it’s a “hit on soft 17″ game, then the odds of the dealer busting increases to just under 14%. Although a “hit soft 17″ game gives a greater chance of the dealer busting on an ace, it gives the player worse overall odds. A dealer with a Soft 17 will usually improve the hand when hitting.